In 2023-24, fuel duty contributed £24.7bn to the UK government’s coffers, to be spent on public services and projects, including road maintenance. The 20% VAT rate fuel contributes billions more.
The UK depends on this revenue source for around 3% of its taxation revenue – a higher exposure than many other countries such as the US (c.1%) or Australia (c.2%). Much of this taxation revenue goes to pay for other government priorities such as education, hospitals and social care, rather than road maintenance.
Over the next 15 years, as the take-up of electric vehicles (EVs) increases, that income will steadily diminish. The UK has set the date of 2035 for all new cars to be zero-emission (at tailpipe), and forecasts predict that major reductions in fuel duty and associated VAT will be seen in the late 2020s, and will accelerate through the 2030s.
Which leaves the question: how will the UK – and similar economies – plug the considerable shortfall in revenue, and fund the maintenance and renewal of its road network?
There are many factors at play in trying to achieve a new, fair, equitable form of taxation to recover the revenues lost in the transition to a net zero fleet. Taxing drivers for electricity and other clean fuels such as hydrogen, either at the point of sale or through a mileage-based method, could unintentionally slow the uptake of low-emission vehicles. On the other hand, managing demand for private road travel through taxation has the potential to encourage a modal switch to public transport (but only where it’s affordable and convenient).
So, what are the options? Drawing on the experience of our global network of specialists in delivering solutions to emerging transport challenges, we are able to offer a heads-up on the most viable emerging road user taxation schemes around the world.